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A/B Tests and Quasi-Experiments from First Principles
A coin flip, a pre-test covariate, a nudge, a cutoff and a before-and-after comparison, derived from potential outcomes with one trick: subtract what the groups share, divide by how far the design moved the treatment.
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Deriving the Distributions from a Coin and a Clock
Binomial, exponential, Poisson, beta, gamma, normal, Student's t and Tweedie, built from one coin and one clock, with a map of how they connect and an A/B test worked end to end.
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Deriving the Prior-Data Fitted Network
From Bayesian prediction to tabular in-context learning, Do-PFN, and time-series forecasting. With figures you can move.